Modi Sarkar’s Rajya Sabha Riddle & Strategies to Solve It

Recently concluded winter session of parliament witnessed lot of turbulence emanating primarily from the Opposition benches and aimed at creating legislative logjam. Although Lok Sabha managed to transact good amount of legislative business, Rajya Sabha did function sub-optimally and managed to negotiate just about 60% of planned business.
Why did it happen so? Why did Rajya Sabha not operate as smoothly and efficiently as Lok Sabha? Answer lies in the fact that the ruling dispensation doesn’t enjoy majority in the Upper House of the Parliament. The Opposition parties have a clear majority (in the House of 245; combined Opposition has 185 members vis-à-vis 59 members of NDA) in Rajya Sabha. At the back of this brute majority, they can potentially block any bill--under any pretext-- which comes up in Rajya Sabha for ratification. In the just-concluded session, they did exactly that and hit Modi Govt where it hurts the most, by blocking economic reforms.
Needless to say, this logjam has not only resulted in key legislation pertaining to coal and insurance not being taken up for discussions/ ratification by Rajya Sabha but has also raised a big question mark over the fate of crucial pipeline bills, e.g. land acquisition bill, which could have a significant positive bearing on the economic revival efforts. Critical questions for an ordinary Indian who cares for “Acche din” on the economic and social development front are – 

•        Will this logjam continue in the forthcoming budget session as well? 

•        Will Modi Govt manage to get Rajya Sabha nod for pending (from the last session) as well as pipeline bills?

•        When (if at all) will Modi Govt have majority in Rajya Sabha to move ahead quickly and efficiently?

Analysis based on publicly available data from Rajya Sabha & Election Commission websites points to a grim picture for Modi Govt in the Upper House for the foreseeable future in its current tenure. Prevailing Rajya Sabha compositions dominated by combined Opposition majority isn’t likely to change quickly. This situation should prompt the Govt to work out strategies to win over Rajya Sabha support of few non-NDA parties (such as AIADMK, BJD and BSP) on a case to case basis. Also at the same time, for the BJP, to focus on winning crucial assembly elections such as Bihar and UP, which can help alter Rajya Sabha composition by 2018. Calling joint session of parliament could be lined up as a viable fallback option if the twin strategies fail to deliver desired outcome.

Rajya Sabha Composition in 2015

Current Rajya Sabha has 245 members (233 elected + 12 nominated) of which NDA has 59 members (BJP- 45 + Shiv Sena- 3 + TDP- 7 + SAD-3 + RPI (A) - 1) and the rest 185 members belong to non-NDA parties. If we consider AIADMK as an NDA friendly party (going by LS Deputy Speaker election bonhomie) then their numbers (11) would add up to take NDA tally to 70 reducing non-NDA tally to 174.
Now let’s look at how Rajya Sabha composition is likely to evolve during the course of next 4 to 5 years. Since the elected members of State Legislative Assemblies elect Rajya Sabha members, a change in the composition of State Assemblies will affect the composition of Rajya Sabha
In 2015, following 10 Rajya Sabha seats will come up for re-election/re-nomination. Currently, all 10 seats are being held by non-NDA parties.

SN	Name of the Member	State	Party	Term Start Date	Term End Date
1	Ratanpuri Shri G. N.	Jammu &Kashmir	J&K NC	4/8/2009	15/02/2015
2	Shafi Shri Mohammad	Jammu & Kashmir	J&K NC	16/02/2009	15/02/2015
3	Soz Prof. Saif-ud-Din	Jammu & Kashmir	INC	11/2/2009	10/2/2015
4	Azad Shri Ghulam Nabi	Jammu & Kashmir	INC	11/2/2009	10/2/2015
5	Achuthan Shri M.P.	Kerala	CPI	22/04/2009	21/04/2015
6	Rajeeve Shri P.	Kerala	CPI(M)	22/04/2009	21/04/2015
7	Ravi Shri Vayalar	Kerala	INC	22/04/2009	21/04/2015
8	Kannan Shri P.	Pondicherry	INC	7/10/2009	6/10/2015
9	Dua Shri H.K.	Nominated	NOM.	18/11/2009	17/11/2015
10	Ganguly Dr. Ashok S.	Nominated	NOM.	18/11/2009	17/11/2015

Members of Rajya Sabha are elected through the system of proportional representation by means of the Single Transferable Vote (STV). In an STV election, a candidate is required to achieve a certain minimum number of votes (called the ‘quota’) to be elected. In 2015, four J&K Rajya Sabha seats will come up for the election. Based on the STV system, each candidate will need a ‘quota’ of (87/ (4+1) +1) 18 votes. Going by the newly formed J&K assembly’s composition, NDA & PDP can win one seat each with first preference votes. If BJP and PDP decide to come together for the state Govt formation, NDA will have total 3 RS seats from Jammu & Kashmir. With NC as a partner, it can hope to have max 2 RS seats from the state.

Three Kerala seats will come up for the election in 2015. Currently, two seats are held by the LDF and one by the UDF. Quota needed for RS election is (140/ (3+1) +1) =36 votes. UDF with its 72 seats in Kerala assembly will easily win 2 RS seats from the state. But since both LDF and UDF are non-NDA parties, there is no change as far as NDA is concerned.

INC holds a lone seat in Pondicherry. However based on current assembly composition this will change and Pondicherry RS seat will go to All India NR Congress (AINRC).

Base case scenario for NDA is to hope to gain four seats from 10 seats that are coming up for election in 2015

SN	Scenario	States Going For RS Elections in 2015			Nominated Members	Total
		J&K	Kerala	Pondicherry
1	Best Case	3	0	0	2	5
2	Base Case	2	0	0	2	4

SN	Party	Base Case RS Seats in 2015	Best Case RS seats in 2015
1	NDA	74	75
2	Non NDA	171	170

With the base case scenario of NDA gaining 4 RS seats in 2015, Rajya Sabha will consist of 74 NDA members (4 up) and 170 non-NDA members.

This situation effectively means that there will be no respite for the Modi Govt in Rajya Sabha in 2015. ‘Majority induced’ pandemonium and legislative logjam will prevail and likely to stall Modi Govt’s development agenda in the budget session as well as for the rest of the year.

Rajya Sabha Composition in 2016

Before we embark on 2016 analysis, let's factor in two important events. One, Bihar will go in for state assembly election in Nov-Dec 2015. Two; in May-June of 2016 five other states (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, West Bengal & Assam) will also have state assembly elections. With BJP expected to do better at least in Bihar and West Bengal, these state elections will have some bearing on the RS elections as well.
For projecting Rajya Sabha composition, we need to consider two scenarios in each one of these states going in for state assembly elections. Base case scenario where current assembly composition remains more or less the same. Two, Best case scenario when BJP/NDA outshines other parties in the fray and wins majority seats in the assembly
For Bihar, Base case scenario would be BJP retaining its current strength of 90 MLAs in the assembly and the Best case scenario could be BJP/NDA winning absolute majority in the house. Similar analysis for other states going in for state assembly elections in 2016 as well such states where only RS seats are coming up for election provides following views: -

SN	States Going For RS Elections in 2016	Seats Coming Up For Election In 2016	2016 NDA Win Scenario (s)
			Base Case	Best Case
1	AP	4	2	3
2	Assam	2	0*	0*
3	Bihar	5	2	3
4	Chhattisgarh	2	1	1
5	Haryana	2	1	2
6	Himachal Pradesh	1	0	0
7	Jharkhand	1	1	1
8	Karnataka	4	1	1
9	Kerala	3	0	0
10	Madhya Pradesh	3	2	2
11	Maharashtra	6	4	5
12	Nagaland	1	0	0
13	Odisha	3	0	0
14	Punjab	7	4	4
15	Rajasthan	4	4	4
16	Tamil Nadu	6	3~	3~
17	Telangana	2	0	0
18	Tripura	1	0	0
19	Uttar Pradesh	11	1	1
20	Uttarakhand	1	0	0
21	Nominated	5	5	5
TOTAL		74	31	35

* Assam RS elections will happen prior to assembly elections and hence no change in assembly composition

~ assuming AIADMK can maintain its current majority position in TN assembly post 2016 elections

SN	Party	Base Case	Best Case
1	NDA	81	85
2	Non NDA	164	160

With the base case scenario of NDA gaining total 31 RS seats including six additional seats in 2016, Rajya Sabha will have 81 NDA members (6 up) and 164 non-NDA members.

Based on this analysis it is evident that even 2016 won’t provide any respite for Modi Govt in Rajya Sabha. Non-NDA parties will continue to dominate the upper house and very likely to give tough time to Modi Govt by obstructing the key reform related legislation even in 2016.

Rajya Sabha Composition in 2017

In 2017, 10 Rajya Sabha seats will come up for the elections, bulk (six) of which will be from West Bengal, three from Gujarat and one from Goa. Assuming the Best Case scenario of BJP replacing Left in Bengal and garnering the same number of seats as Left (65), they will still be able to win only 1 RS seat in West Bengal.

SN	Party	Base Case	Best Case
1	NDA	82	85
2	Non NDA	163	160

Rajya Sabha Composition in 2018

So will BJP get majority in Rajya Sabha in 2018? Total 68 seats will come up for re-election in 2018 of which, 22 seats are from three states namely UP (10), Maharashtra (6) and Bihar (6). If BJP wins Bihar in Nov 2015 and UP in May 2017 then, there will be significant Rajya Sabha gains for NDA in 2018. However, even with that, BJP/NDA alone won’t be able to hit majority (123/245) mark in Rajya Sabha. It can only hope to reach the magic number in Rajya Sabha with the help of nominated MPs (10) and AIADMK/BJD.

Strategies to Solve Rajya Sabha Riddle

In nutshell, BJP Govt should prepare itself for frequent roadblocks in Rajya Sabha for the next few years. More States BJP wins, more Opposition unity and more chaos. This likely scenario should prompt the Govt to think out of box strategies for winning over Rajya Sabha support of few non-NDA parties (such as AIADMK, BJD and BSP) on a case to case basis. Also for the BJP to focus on winning crucial assembly elections such as Bihar and UP, which could help alter Rajya Sabha configuration in their favour. Calling joint session of parliament could be lined up as a viable fallback option if the twin strategies fail to deliver desired outcome. Joint meeting of parliament has been called only thrice before, but that shouldn’t deter BJP from calling it often enough in next five years only in the eventuality that Rajya Sabha route has been blocked by the Opposition